Virtual Only | Track 1 | Session 3. Resilient Urban Futures

In the era of escalating VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) conditions, rapid urbanization challenges cities’ ability to maintain spatial equity and resilience. Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) has emerged as a key planning approach that promotes compact, mixed-use growth. However, how TOD supports urban resilience—defined here as the city’s capacity to absorb shocks, adapt to change, and ensure service continuity—remains insufficiently examined across different spatial contexts.This study explores the interactions between metro-driven functional mix and urban resilience across historically, centrally, and peripherally located urban areas. Using Xi’an, China, as a case study, we construct coarse- and fine-grained indicators of urban function density based on semantically reclassified POI data from 2011 and 2024. We apply Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) and SHAP analysis to examine how metro development influences function density, and more importantly, how these changes contribute to urban resilience dimensions: redundancy, diversity, and adaptive capacity.Findings indicate that in urban centers, TOD significantly enhances functional diversity and spatial redundancy within a 1.5 km range of metro stations, thus improving resilience to demographic shifts and service demand volatility. In contrast, urban fringes show weak or negative TOD-induced changes, with limited capacity to absorb growth or reconfigure under stress—reflecting low adaptive resilience. Historic areas, constrained by preservation policies, exhibit static functional composition and minimal capacity gain. Importantly, TOD’s capacity to foster resilience is amplified in zones with high base-year functional density, demonstrating path-dependent resilience reinforcement.This study contributes to the theoretical intersection of TOD and resilience planning by proposing a spatially differentiated governance framework: resilience engines in core areas, guided evolution in fringe zones, and cultural integration in historic districts. The dual-scale methodology offers replicable tools for evaluating TOD’s role in fostering sustainable and resilient urban systems.

Amid the global climate crisis and ongoing ecological degradation, China has set ambitious Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality goals while simultaneously advancing a national rural revitalization strategy. Rural housing, a cornerstone of agricultural livelihoods, plays a vital role in the well-being of farmers, with housing quality improvements being central to their aspirations. However, carbon emissions arising from both the construction and operational phases of rural housing represent a significant portion of overall rural emissions. This creates a paradox between decarbonization and housing quality, underscoring systemic weaknesses in urban-rural metabolic flows. Fragmented planning perpetuates resource misallocation and exacerbates spatial inequities, making it essential to develop decarbonization strategies that effectively reconcile emission control with housing quality improvements. Such strategies are crucial for achieving national climate objectives within the framework of rural development. This study addresses the pronounced regional heterogeneity in rural housing construction patterns across China, stemming from vast geographical disparities in economic development and natural conditions. It seeks to establish a novel village typology grounded in housing construction characteristics and to identify the principal determinants of carbon dioxide emissions within each typological category. The central aim is to generate evidence for adaptive governance frameworks that bridge urban-rural planning divides, thereby enabling territorially sensitive pathways toward carbon-neutral regional development while advancing spatial justice in rapidly transforming landscapes. Field surveys conducted across 147 counties in 26 regions of China provided primary data on rural housing construction attributes and associated socioeconomic factors, which were supplemented by CO₂ emission inventories. Villages were classified into four distinct typologies using the k-means clustering algorithm, and their spatial distribution was mapped using ArcGIS. A statistical correlation analysis of 14 key indicators—encompassing housing construction features and emission metrics—revealed significant inter-typology heterogeneity, offering insights into the driving factors behind emission variations. The analysis found that modernized villages are the dominant typology, with a spatial distribution marked by higher population densities in southeastern regions, tapering off towards the northwest. The study advances regional planning theory in three ways. First, it establishes a morphological typology framework that quantifies how built-environment configurations influence carbon outcomes across urban-rural transitions. Second, it identifies asymmetric resilience capacities, showing that modernized villages have higher mitigation potential but face greater risks of lock-in, while traditional villages, although exhibiting lower emissions, face more significant constraints in adapting to decarbonization. Third, it conceptualizes vacancy as a misallocation of spatial resources, a critical inefficiency in regional metabolic flows. This typological approach reconciles the need for emission reductions with improvements in quality of life, ensuring that decarbonization strategies are not only effective but also contextually appropriate, aligning with the socioeconomic realities and developmental goals of different rural settings. By reinterpreting rural housing as a dynamic component of regional socioecological systems rather than isolated entities, this analysis provides actionable insights for designing integrated urban-rural decarbonization pathways. These pathways not only enhance systemic resilience but also offer a way to navigate the complexities of a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, ensuring sustainable and equitable progress in both climate resilience and rural revitalization.

In an era marked by accelerating urbanisation, resource constraints, and socio-spatial fragmentation, the neighbourhood scale is emerging as a critical entry point for advancing sustainable urban development. While circularity is often framed through macro-scale strategies and technocratic models of resource management, this study draws attention to the underexplored potential of neighbourhoods as spatially and socially embedded sites of circular action. Neighbourhoods can operate as “living labs”: small enough to allow practical implementation, yet large enough to capture the complexity of urban systems and community behaviours. This research situates the concept of circular neighbourhoods within the urban context of London, exploring how the city can be deconstructed into manageable spatial units through which circularity becomes more tangible and operational, enabling site-specific experimentation and policy innovation. The central question guiding this inquiry is: how can neighbourhoods serve as starting points for a broader transition toward urban circularity? The study aims to conceptualise the circular neighbourhood as a spatial unit that integrates circular economy principles into local flows of materials, everyday practices, and social relations, offering a place-based framework for sustainable urban transformation. This study employs a qualitative, desk-based methodology that integrates critical literature synthesis with secondary analysis of London-based planning frameworks, community initiatives, and circular pilot projects from the period 2021 to 2024. Drawing on urban design, circular economy, and socio-spatial theory, the research investigates how spatial morphology, governance structures, and everyday practices intersect at the neighbourhood scale. This approach supports the development of a multi-dimensional framework that links conceptual insights with observed patterns of circular implementation in complex urban systems. This research identifies three interrelated dimensions through which neighbourhoods can function as starting points for embedding circularity into urban systems. First, it establishes local circularity as the conceptual foundation for neighbourhood-scale transitions. Moving beyond dominant narratives that frame the circular economy in terms of macro-scale industrial loops or urban metabolism, this study repositions circularity as a spatially situated and socially embedded process. Emphasis is placed on proximity, participation, and place-specific flows of materials, services, and knowledge that characterise the everyday functioning of neighbourhood systems. Second, the study advances the notion of the multi-dimensional circularity of everyday life, building on the foundation of local circularity to highlight the temporal-spatial and social-spatial dynamics that shape neighbourhood resilience and adaptability. These dimensions capture not only the rhythms of daily practices, such as reuse, sharing, and maintenance, but also the spatial and institutional structures that support them. Third, the research examines a suite of circular design strategies that can translate these principles into spatial interventions. Strategies such as temporary uses, adaptive reuse, and modular construction are proposed as boundary-spanning tools that connect ecological imperatives with socio-spatial value creation. Rather than fixed typologies, circular neighbourhoods are conceptualised as flexible and iterative systems, capable of evolving in response to shifting community needs, policy conditions, and environmental constraints. This study contributes to reframing the neighbourhood as a strategic scale for embedding circularity in urban systems. By linking multi-dimensional circularity, this study offers a new lens for understanding how circularity can be embedded at the community scale. It advances a spatialised and community-centred understanding of the circular economy, positioning neighbourhoods as critical interfaces where material flows, governance mechanisms, and everyday practices converge. By synthesising insights on local circularity, spatial regeneration, and design-led interventions, it positions neighbourhoods as replicable “living labs” for testing and scaling sustainable urban solutions.

Under the global climate change context, enhancing the carbon sink efficiency of urban green spaces is of significant importance for mitigating global warming. However, the carbon sink efficiency of urban green spaces exhibits notable spatial heterogeneity, influenced by environmental factors that are closely related to urban morphological characteristics. Existing studies commonly employ the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system to explore the relationship between urban block spatial forms and microclimatic factors, yet this framework fails to comprehensively encompass key environmental factors affecting the carbon sink efficiency of urban green spaces. This mismatch results in the lack of a dedicated urban classification system tailored to the carbon sink efficiency of green spaces, thereby limiting the potential for more precise assessment and optimization of urban green space carbonsink in urban planning and ecological construction. Building upon the LCZ framework, this study identifies key environmental factors influencing the carbon sequestration efficiency of urban green spaces and incorporates landscape pattern indices to construct an urban morphological classification system based on green space carbon sink efficiency. By analyzing the surrounding environmental characteristics of urban green spaces, this study develops a spatial morphological classification system that ensures green spaces within the same urban spatial category exhibit consistent carbon sink performance. Utilizing multi-source data and machine learning methods, the research quantifies the contribution of different environmental factors to carbon sink efficiency and conducts cluster analysis of urban areas combined with landscape pattern indices, ultimately establishing the Green Space Carbon Sink Zone (GSCSZ) classification system. Innovatively, this study proposes an urban morphological classification system based on green space carbon sink efficiency, dividing urban spaces into 13 typical forms, including fully enclosed high-rise building green spaces, semi-enclosed low-rise building green spaces, open low-rise building green spaces, scattered building green spaces, no-building green spaces, water-body green spaces, artificial ground green spaces, and no-green spaces, among others. Among these, no-building green spaces and water-body green spaces demonstrate the highest carbon sink performance, significantly surpassing other types. The results indicate that rational urban morphological planning can substantially enhance vegetation carbon sink potential, and this classification system can provide theoretical support for differentiated carbon neutrality strategies. The theoretical significance of this study lies in its systematic integration of environmental factors and landscape pattern indices to construct an urban morphological classification system based on carbon sink efficiency, addressing the current gap in spatial heterogeneity analysis in green space carbon sink research. Practically, this classification system offers scientific guidance for urban planners to optimize green space layouts and enhance urban carbon sink capacity, thereby supporting low-carbon urban development and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals. Future research could further incorporate dynamic simulations to explore green space carbon sink potential under different urban development scenarios, improving the applicability and predictive capability of this classification system.

As cities expand and rural functions evolve, urban-–rural fringe (URF) zones have become critical interfaces where urban and rural systems converge. These regions now bear the triple pressures of accommodating outward migration of urban population and functions while also conducting ecological restoration. However, challenges such as degraded ecological connectivity, inadequate service accessibility, and weakening social cohesion have intensified under rapid land development and population influx. Meanwhile, traditional urban and -rural governance persists in models of dualistic segmentation and template-driven management. As a result, it has become increasingly difficult to identify and address the growing complexity of spatial conflicts and divers development demands emerging within URF areas. In response to these issues, this study develops a multi-objective, resilience-based spatial optimization framework aimed at promoting synergies among ecological resilience, spatial efficiency, and social equity in URF areas. The central research question is: Given the complex spatial configurations and diverse development trajectories in these areas, how can spatial conflicts be effectively identified, trade-offs balanced, and adaptive, scenario-responsive strategies formulated for integrated territorial governance? This research focuses on the integration boundary region of the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area as a case study. A composite resilience indicator system was established, encompassing ecological, social, and spatial dimensions, and eight quantifiable indicators were defined to cover crucial elements including ecological connectivity, habitat quality, land development intensity, service accessibility, and community cohesion. The analysis draws on multi-source data from 2015 to 2024, including remote sensing imagery, Point of Interest (POI) data, statistical yearbooks, transportation network, and ecological monitoring data. The study initially aapplies the EntropyWeighted Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Entropy Weighted TOPSIS) to identify the dominant dimensions of sub-regional conflicts. This is followed by the use of the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm III (NSGA III) for multi-objective optimization, together with a spatial conflict decoupling model. This approach generates a Paret-optimal strategy set that responds to multiple planning scenarios, realizing a systematic process from conflict diagnosis to the establishment of collaborative pathways. The study reveals that, in the Hangzhou integration area from 2015 to 2024, a notable mismatch in the resilience structure has emerged. The average growth rate of development intensity reached 17.2%. In contrast, ecological connectivity declined by 11.4% and service accessibility decreased by 6.8%, This demonstrates a prominent contradiction, commonly described as growth-equity decoupling. The model further identifies two patterns of conflict-dominated regional imbalance: one centered om the tension between development intensity and ecological connectivity, and the other on the trade-off between economic density and service equilibrium. Based on these findings, three categories of Pareto-optimal strategies were proposed. The combination of at least 13% improvement in ecological resilience, 8 to 10% growth in development intensity, and a minimum of19% enhancement in service accessibility demonstrated the most balanced outcomes. This validates the practical feasibility of optimizing ecological, functional, and social dimensions simultaneously within spatial planning. Additional spatial analysis suggests that targeted interventions, such as restoring ecological nodes, reconnecting green corridors, and softening hard land-use edges, can help mitigate overlapping ecological risks and urban pressures. These measures support the development of more nuanced, scenario-based spatial governance approaches for URF zones. This study offers methodological innovations and an empirical foundation for understanding the complexities of spatial conflict and multi--objective synergy in URF areas in China. It underscores the importance of moving from beyond single-objective frameworks and adopting integrated, adaptive planning models. The proposed framework holds is also relevance to other rapidly urbanizing regions seeking to balance growth, resilience, and equity in spatial development.

In this modern world characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA), rapid urbanization processes have produced profound restructuring impacts on urban-rural spatial systems. China's unprecedented urbanization (rate surged from 17.9% to 67.0% between 1978-2024) has triggered systematic hollowing-out crises in traditional villages, manifested as spatial abandonment, demographic decline, social disorganization, and economic contraction. These overlapping crises have threatened regional sustainability and resilience. In response, the Chinese government collaborated with social organizations to launch rural revitalization initiatives. This study focuses on the resilience reconstruction mechanisms of peripheral areas in the VUCA world, using the Xihe Village in China as a representative case to explore innovative pathways for achieving sustainable urban-rural integrated development through community-centered approaches. Formerly a hollowed-out, agriculture-dependent village, Xihe experienced severe depopulation and socio-economic decline. Since 2013, however, the village has undergone a remarkable transformation, shifting toward a tourism-driven economy through innovative revitalization practices. Its permanent population grew from 483 to 1,337, tourism increased to 300,000 annual visitors, and per capita income rose from 2,000 to 50,000 yuan. This study employs a "spatial-social-economic" analytical framework, utilizing multi-temporal remote sensing data (1980-2025), 18 months of ethnographic fieldwork, and 26 in-depth interviews to track the dynamic spatial transformation process of Xihe Village. Three key findings emerge: 1. Spatial resilience dimension: multi-scale coordinated governance innovation Xihe Village's practice transcends the dichotomy between traditional preservation and comprehensive development, establishing a cross-river dialogue spatial governance model. The north bank preserves original dwellings to maintain cultural identity, while the south bank transforms contemporary buildings for tourism economy and community services. This formed a dynamic balance between “traditional-modern” and “conservation-development.” During this process, Architect He Wei proposed the "5-3-2 Collaboration Principle" (50% professional design, 30% on-site negotiation, 20% craftsman innovation), which exemplifies co-creation between experts, residents, and artisans, surpassing the limits of top-down, single-scale planning. 2. Social resilience dimension: activation and reconstruction of endogenous networks Faced with social network disintegration, Xihe Village activated endogenous development momentum through community-centered “community reconstruction” strategies. The project insists on treating the villagers as the core, engaging respected local gentry to establish cooperatives, and actively involving villagers in the spatial transformation process, thereby strengthening social bonds and encouraging population return. This social resilience construction not only serves rural revitalization but also provides a social capital foundation for urban-rural population mobility, industrial transfer, and cultural exchange, which powerfully supports regional integrated development. 3. Economic resilience dimension: institutional design of cooperative competition Xihe Village faces both opportunities and challenges brought by tourism economic development. The annual tourist volume of 300,000 stimulated the growth of the local economy but also triggered internal vicious competition within society which threatened the community solidarity. The cooperatives introduced a "tiered service management system," categorizing accommodation facilities into three levels according to conditions. The transformation from differentiated competition to complementary cooperation was achieved through community-based deliberation rather than market regulation. This "cooperation within competition" model fosters sustainable growth while shifting values from individualism to collective prosperity. In the uncertainty-filled VUCA world, Xihe Village's practice proved that the "spatial-social-economic" collaborative resilience model, constructed through community-centered approaches can effectively respond to multiple crises and achieve sustainable transformation of peripheral areas. This model not only provides innovative pathways for China's rural revitalization but also offers a practical framework for global sustainable development challenges in peripheral areas, which has significant theoretical value and practical significance for promoting inclusive and resilient urban-rural integrated development.

Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment Tools (NSATs) have played a crucial role in promoting sustainable neighborhood design over the past two decades, supporting the implementation of global sustainability goals. This study conducts a comprehensive review of 339 peer-reviewed articles from the Web of Science and Scopus databases, applying both quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the evolution of NSAT research. The quantitative analysis reveals a steady growth in scholarly output, with significant contributions from a diverse range of countries, journals, and authors. Keyword co-occurrence mapping identifies four core research clusters: (1) development trajectories of assessment tools, (2) comparative evaluations and optimization strategies, (3) relationships between NSATs and sustainability outcomes, and (4) tool application and performance analysis. The qualitative synthesis further highlights key challenges, including fragmented evaluation metrics, limited digital integration, and inadequate local adaptability. To address these issues, the paper proposes two future research directions: (a) enhancing NSAT systems through the integration of digital technologies and alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and (b) strengthening contextual adaptation to support wider applicability across diverse geographic and socio-economic settings. These findings provide a valuable foundation for advancing NSAT research and informing the development of more adaptive, evidence-based sustainability tools in the post-2030 era.